Follow the money!

Publicly-reported independent expenditure funding through September 17 was released this week for #MNLeg races. Read on to find out who’s spending big money in Minnesota to influence targeted House districts, and what this means for the balance of power in the next biennium.

  • Independent expenditures were made in 41 House districts[1]
  • A total of $2,832,000 has been spent by political parties’ House campaign arms and independent groups, of which 86% ($2,426,000) was spent in 12 top battleground races
  • In battleground districts, 1.5x as much was spent to benefit DFL candidates ($1,465,000) as compared to GOP candidates ($961,000). All but three battleground districts have a DFL spending advantage.
  • Biggest spenders:
    • Overall, DFL House Caucus ($838,000) and DFL-aligned group, Alliance for a Better Minnesota ($864,000)
    • On the GOP side, the House Republican Campaign Committee ($139,000) and GOP-aligned groups, Renew Minnesota ($579,000) and Pro Jobs Majority ($378,000)

Funding comes from powerful state and national interests

Legislative campaign arms routinely raise and spend millions each cycle for independent expenditures as well as direct candidate support. Allied groups, which may share ideological goals, may raise from a separate pool of donors. In Minnesota, independent expenditure committees may raise money from corporations, while campaigns and PACs cannot. A few of note:

  • Alliance for a Better Minnesota: funded by prominent Democratic-aligned individual donors, labor unions, national SuperPACs
  • Renew Minnesota: funded by Republican-aligned individual donors, Minnesota Private Business Council, national Republican campaign committees
  • Pro Jobs Majority: funded by Minnesota Chamber of Commerce

Spending will only increase in the next month

If you live in one of these districts, prepare for an onslaught of online ads and glossy mailers — spending in competitive races will dramatically ratchet up in the weeks and days to come, as campaign professionals aim to target voters at the precise moment when they are making up their minds. Top-spending groups have considerable war chests and continue to raise. Transfers between top groups further obscure the path of money in these races.

Money isn’t everything

If predictions become reality, many of these races will come down to a small contingent of swing voters who ultimately select and vote for a candidate (and whether to vote at all) based on national trends. Having Minnesota’s very own Tim Walz on the Democratic ticket is sure to fire up enthusiasm from the local DFL base, while longtime Donald Trump loyalists are eager to see the former President return to the White House.

Battleground House Districts

District DFL Candidate GOP Candidate Spent to Benefit DFL Spent to Benefit GOP Total
18A Jeff Brand (i) Erica Schwartz $169,343.89 $101,910.81 $271,254.70
3B Mark Munger Natalie Zeleznikar (i) $118,218.57 $147,797.11 $266,015.68
35B Kari Rehrauer Steve Pape $157,910.01 $101,837.84 $259,747.85
48B Lucy Rehm (i) Caleb Steffenhagen $133,372.24 $117,928.28 $251,300.52
35A Zack Stephenson (i) Josh Jungling $168,137.19 $82,126.18 $250,263.37
32B Matt Norris (i) Alex Moe $158,184.01 $50,470.24 $208,654.25
41A Lucia Wroblewski Wayne Johnson $108,850.41 $98,492.16 $207,342.57
14B Dan Wolgamott (i) Sue Ek $156,439.02 $21,706.29 $178,145.31
41B Jen Fox Tom Dippel $78,167.02 $79,801.50 $157,968.52
26A Sara Kruger Aaron Repinski $52,647.01 $105,247.06 $157,894.07
45A Tracey Breazeale Andrew Myers (i) $91,069.10 $25,994.79 $117,063.89
54A Brad Tabke (i) Aaron Paul $72,619.99 $27,909.42 $100,529.41

[1] *Independent expenditures made to influence primary elections or other actions were removed from this analysis, to the best extent possible.

September 26, 2024