Where Are the Budget Targets?

With the House and Senate approaching the April 17 third committee deadline for finance bills, it is highly unusual that neither the House nor Senate has released committee budget targets. Budget targets are benchmarks that typically guide omnibus bill construction and signal caucus priorities. In most years, targets are distributed well in advance of the third committee deadline to give committees time to assemble and reconcile spending bills. The absence of targets this late in the process creates significant uncertainty at the Capitol.

The delay comes despite Minnesota entering the session with a positive near-term fiscal outlook. The latest Minnesota Management and Budget forecast projects a roughly $3.7 billion surplus for the current FY 2026–27 biennium, providing some flexibility for policymakers, while the out-biennium (FY 2028–29) shows only a modest balance of about $377 million and an ongoing structural imbalance that continues to concern budget officials.

Is HCMC Too Big to Fail?

The Hennepin County Medical Center (HCMC) debate in the 2026 Session centers on whether and how the state should intervene to prevent the potential collapse of a financially distressed but critical “safety-net” hospital. On Thursday, the House Taxes Committee considered HF 4841, a bill aimed at stabilizing HCMC by redirecting and expanding the existing Hennepin County sales/ballpark tax from 0.15% to a full 1%. The new revenues would generate significant new revenue to support hospital operations.

Supporters said the measure is needed to address a growing financial crisis at HCMC, the state’s primary safety-net hospital and busiest trauma center, which faces ongoing operating losses driven by uncompensated care and Medicaid funding pressures. Testifiers emphasized the hospital’s statewide role in providing care, training healthcare workers, and supporting rural systems, warning that failure to act could jeopardize access to critical services. While lawmakers from both parties acknowledged the urgency, some raised concerns about the scale of the tax increase and the need for accountability or internal reforms alongside new funding. The bill was laid over as discussions on an omnibus tax bill continue.

Capital Investment Committees Continue Work

With the 2026 Legislature returning from its Easter/Passover recess, the House and Senate Capital Investment Committees continued hearing bills this week. The challenge these committees have is agreeing on a bipartisan borrowing package to fund significant statewide infrastructure needs amid competing priorities and fiscal constraints. Demand for funding is extremely high—total project requests approach $6–7 billion—while the Governor has proposed a much smaller package of roughly $900 million. While it is unclear what size of bill will pass, comments from capital insiders suggest a final bill closer to about $1 billion, if one passes at all.

Bonding bills require a 60% supermajority, forcing cooperation in a politically divided, election-year legislature, which historically makes negotiations difficult and uncertain. The debate is further shaped by urgent infrastructure needs (e.g., water systems, transportation, and asset preservation backlogs) and competition among local projects, creating tension between widespread demand for investment and the limited borrowing capacity and political will to approve it.

Senate Energy Committee Debates Nuclear Power

The Senate Energy, Utilities, Environment, and Climate Committee on Wednesday, April 8, took up the omnibus energy bill but laid it over after a contentious debate over a nuclear power study. The study would focus on whether Minnesota should revisit its longstanding restrictions on new nuclear energy development. Supporters framed the study as a pragmatic, forward-looking step to assess nuclear energy’s potential role in delivering reliable, carbon-free power amid rising electricity demand and concerns about grid stability. Opponents, however, warned that even studying the issue could signal a shift toward reopening the door to expensive and controversial nuclear projects, arguing the state should remain focused on expanding renewable energy and storage instead. The Committee will reconsider the bill on Monday, April 13.

Bills to Ban Prediction Markets Heard in House and Senate

Minnesota lawmakers are moving forward with legislation to prohibit prediction market platforms, with hearings held in both the House Commerce Committee and Senate State Government Committee on Thursday. The companion bills, HF 4437/SF 4511, would classify event-based trading—where users wager on outcomes like elections, sports, or public policy decisions—as illegal gambling, and would extend liability to operators and promoters. The proposals reflect growing concern that these platforms are operating as unregulated sportsbooks without consumer protections. Supporters argue the measures are necessary to close a regulatory gap and prevent expansion of quasi-gambling products, while opponents warn the bans could conflict with federal oversight and face legal challenges. SF 4511 advanced to the Senate Commerce Committee while HF 4437 was laid over in the House Commerce Committee.

April 10, 2026